The National Institute of Justice — an arm of the Federal government that researches crime and produces its findings — has an excellent piece on the criminal justice system and deterrence. In five points, it sums up several things that I have been saying for a while now.
Primarily: Prison is not a deterrent for crime.
Source — National Institute of Justice (NIJ), U.S. Department of Justice
Five Things About Deterrence
Published by the NIJ — the research, development, and evaluation agency of the U.S. Department of Justice. The NIJ synthesizes criminological research for policymakers and practitioners. This resource summarizes decades of peer-reviewed findings on whether incarceration deters crime. Read the full resource →
The Five Things
01
Certainty Deters More Than Severity
The certainty of being caught is a vastly more effective deterrent than the severity of the punishment. Increasing sentence length produces diminishing returns — and eventually no deterrent effect at all. The research is unambiguous on this point.
02
Sending Someone to Prison Has Negligible Deterrent Effect
Compared to other forms of punishment, incarceration has a negligible impact on future criminal behavior. For some populations, incarceration may actually increase the likelihood of reoffending by exposing people to criminal networks and removing legitimate employment and housing opportunities.
03
Police Presence May Deter — Incarceration Does Not Produce Community Effects
Visible police presence in a specific location may deter crime in that immediate area. Incarceration, by contrast, produces no demonstrated community-wide deterrent effect. Removing someone from a community does not reduce that community’s crime rate.
04
Offenders Don’t Accurately Assess Punishment Risk
Most people who commit crimes do not make rational, accurate assessments of the probability of being caught and punished before acting. The deterrence model assumes a rational actor weighing costs and benefits — the behavioral evidence consistently does not support that assumption.
05
Rehabilitation Programs Reduce Reoffending More Effectively Than Sentence Length
Evidence-based rehabilitation programs — education, vocational training, substance abuse treatment, cognitive behavioral therapy — produce stronger reductions in reoffending than simply incarcerating people longer. The research points consistently toward investment in what happens during and after incarceration, not in making sentences longer.
Not only is incarceration incredibly harmful — it’s a tremendous waste of taxpayer dollars that doesn’t keep anyone safer and only serves to break down communities.
The Assembly Line Argument
If Judges and Prosecutors want an assembly line to keep them working and in power, the current criminal justice system is working as intended. The NIJ findings don’t change that calculus for people who benefit from the system’s structure — which is exactly why it takes public pressure and evidence-based advocacy, not just research, to move policy.
It’s no wonder that the Michigan Department of Corrections is having trouble keeping employees and people are going on strike. With excessive and mandatory overtime, they’re tired of being prisoners, too.
Related Coverage — The Deterrence Evidence Base
How to cite: Williams, R. [Rita]. (2024, December 18). DOJ Research Finds Prison Does Not Deter Crime. Clutch Justice. https://clutchjustice.com/2024/12/18/doj-prison-is-not-a-deterrent-for-crime/
